Mark Elramo, Vice President of IHS Chemicals, pointed out at the 46th European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) annual meeting held in Budapest from October 6th to October 10th that the demand for the global petrochemical market will continue to grow from Western Europe and North America to Asia-Pacific in the next 7 years. The rapid economic growth in the region has shifted. In this process, the global petrochemical production capacity will also change significantly, and will focus on the cost-conscious Middle East and North America, which will lead to major changes in the trade pattern of petrochemical products.
IHS Chemicals pointed out that in 2010, Asia accounted for almost 50% of the global demand for basic chemicals and plastics, and it is expected that this ratio will exceed 55% by 2020. During this period, China’s market share in the global demand for basic chemicals and plastics will grow rapidly and is expected to increase from about 25% in 2010 to more than 30% in 2020. In the next seven years, the proportion of China, Europe, Western Europe, and North America that will account for global demand for basic chemicals and plastics will continue to decline, and the demand share in developed regions will continue to shrink.
IHS Chemical Company believes that the demand for petrochemical products in the Asia-Pacific region continues to grow faster than capacity growth, which will lead to a large number of imported products entering the region. In order to meet the growing demand, the Asia-Pacific region needs to continue to expand its logistics and transportation capabilities. By 2020, the global consumption of basic chemicals and plastics will reach 1 billion tons, of which the international trade volume will be close to 200 million tons, and most of them will be exported from North America and the Middle East to Asia.
Elamo said that current petrochemical companies have two options for making production investment decisions: building factories in demand centers such as Asia, investing in areas with material cost advantages such as the Middle East or North America. At present, the capacity of ethylene in North America and the Middle East accounts for over 40% of the world's total. It is predicted that although Asia will continue to invest heavily in new petrochemical plants in the next few years, many investors will choose to build projects in the Middle East and North America. Therefore, more quantities of petrochemicals and plastics will be exported from the Middle East and North America to Asia in the future.
North American's abundance of unconventional natural gas liquid products provides US petrochemical producers, which generally use light raw materials as cracking raw materials, ample, price-competitive raw materials. The ethane price advantage in 2010 made the US ethylene industry profitable, which stimulated petrochemical producers to further increase the investment in raw material lightening, and also increased the export competitiveness of local petrochemical products, which in turn led to the North American petrochemical industry. A new round of investment boom. Most of the new petrochemical projects in North America will be put into operation from 2016 to 2018.
For the Middle East region, around 2020, the tight supply of natural gas resources will eventually stop the rapid growth of local petrochemical production capacity. For high-cost countries, including China, the use of alternative feedstock technologies, such as coal-to-olefin and propane dehydrogenation technologies, will produce basic chemicals and Plastic Products.
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