Authoritative interpretation: The big event of "double points" trading is here.


Since the formal implementation of the “double points” policy, the first-scale transaction of “double points” has started.

On July 2, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs and the General Administration of Market Supervision jointly issued the 2017 Annual Announcement on the Average Fuel Consumption of China's Passenger Vehicle Enterprises and the Credit Calculation of New Energy Vehicles (the “Announcement”).

双积分交易
双积分交易

Which companies “sit back and relax” not only do not have the pressure of negative points, but also ample new energy vehicles can be sold in positive points; which companies can “self-sufficiency”, the average fuel consumption points and new energy vehicle points can basically achieve balance; which enterprises Is the "big buyer" of points, need to complete the settlement of negative points through the transaction to zero? In this announcement, you can find the answer.

List of "big sellers" and "big buyers"

According to the announcement, after accounting, in 101 domestic passenger car manufacturers in 2017, the fuel consumption was positively scored at 12,509,100, the fuel consumption was negative, the score was 1,900,200, and the new energy vehicle's positive score was 1,668,900. 29 imported passenger car supply companies, fuel consumption positive points of 372,300 points, fuel consumption negative points of 198,800 points, new energy vehicles positive points of 106,300 points. This is basically in line with the points submitted by the company in accordance with the regulations in early April, and there is little room for entry and exit.

The announcement will classify 130 car companies according to whether the average fuel consumption of passenger cars in 2017 is up to standard, and count the points in accordance with the standards and non-compliance. Among them, there are 74 enterprises with average fuel consumption standards and 56 enterprises that do not meet the standards. Legendary points "big sellers" and "big buyers" have also surfaced.

The reporter found that among the 74 passenger car companies whose average fuel consumption is up to standard, 5 companies have more than 100,000 points for new energy vehicles. This part of the company is not only lacking in negative points, but also has enough positive points to participate. The “sub-master” of the transaction has the potential of “big seller” in the process of point trading. Among the five companies, BYD Auto Co., Ltd. and Beijing New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd. have more than 200,000 points for new energy vehicles. New in Zhejiang Geely Automobile Co., Ltd., Shanghai Automotive Group Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Haoqing Automobile Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Energy vehicle points are between 100,000 and 150,000 points. The total scores of these five “integrators” exceeded 800,000 points, accounting for nearly 46% of the total new energy vehicles.

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双积分交易

What are the companies that have a large demand for points trading?

Among the 56 passenger car companies whose average fuel consumption is not up to standard, five companies also have an average fuel consumption of more than 100,000 points. Among them, Changan Ford Motor Co., Ltd.'s average fuel consumption has a negative integral of nearly 290,000 points, and the other four companies have negative points between 140,000 and 150,000. The negative fuel points generated by the average fuel consumption of the five companies totaled more than 886,000 points, which exceeded half of the total negative fuel consumption, and exceeded the cumulative scores of the top five companies in the new energy vehicle.

A very real problem is that these five companies are difficult to achieve zero compensation based on the new energy vehicle points they generate. It is worth noting that among the five companies, only Great Wall Motor Co., Ltd. has a total of 9848 points of new energy vehicle points that can be used for trading. Compared with the negative points generated by the average fuel consumption, only a small part can be achieved. The points are deducted. The other four companies have zero new energy vehicle points. Although some enterprises can realize the deduction of points through the transfer between affiliated companies, it is not realistic for these five companies to achieve zero compensation through this method. In addition, although the negative integral of the average fuel consumption of the enterprise can be compensated by the method of carrying forward the positive points of the previous year, the enterprises with negative average fuel consumption of more than 100,000 are only relying on this route. It is also difficult to accomplish the goal of zeroing off. Therefore, after entering the point trading session, these companies will likely become the “big buyers” in the first large-scale transaction after the implementation of the “double points” policy.

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双积分交易

More than half of imported car companies score "demand is strong"

Some independent brand car enterprises new energy points "sufficient supply"

Since the self-owned brand car enterprises are currently in an absolute dominant position in terms of quantity and scale in the domestic new energy vehicle market, in terms of supply and demand of new energy vehicle points, the imported car companies in 2017 are “demandingly strong” and some independent brand car companies are “supply”. The phenomenon of "sufficiency" is not unexpected.

According to the announcement, 17 of the 29 imported passenger car supply companies did not meet the average fuel consumption, which is more than half of the total number of imported passenger car suppliers. The 17 imported passenger car suppliers not only average fuel consumption. The points are negative and the points for new energy vehicles are zero. Therefore, after entering the trading session, such enterprises will present a "strong" point purchase demand.

On the contrary, the new energy points of some independent brand car companies are “sufficient supply”. For example, five companies with average fuel consumption per passenger car in 2017 and new energy vehicle points with a score of 100,000 or more are 4 self-owned car companies. In fact, in response to the “double points” policy, the new energy vehicle business has been expanded through various channels, and the points of new energy vehicles have reached a certain scale.

It is worth noting that there are still some companies that do not have a “dependency” on new energy vehicle points. According to the reporter's analysis, among the enterprises with average fuel consumption standards, 24 companies have zero points for new energy vehicles. Such enterprises are mainly FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, Beijing Benz, FAW Toyota, GAC Toyota and other mainstream joint ventures. According to the "double points" policy, there is no proportional requirement for new energy vehicle points before 2019, so it seems that these companies have no pressure to achieve compliance in the traditional fuel vehicle field, but in 2019 After the year, they need to meet the integration ratio requirements of new energy vehicles.

Point price firm

The actual transaction price per minute or fell below 1,000 yuan

In order to cooperate with the smooth progress of the points transaction, on July 2, on the same day that the accounting announcement was issued, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Industry Center issued a notice on the average fuel consumption of passenger vehicle enterprises and the launch of the new energy vehicle points trading platform (hereinafter referred to as “ Notice"). This means that in the next three months, companies will conduct point trading and transfer on the trading platform through bidding, pricing and targeted transactions.

Since the implementation of the “double points” policy, the price of the first-time transaction initiated has become the focus of industry and enterprises. In this regard, Zhao Dongyu, deputy chief engineer of the Data Resource Center of China Automotive Technology Research Center Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “China Gas Center”), one of the main drafters of the “Double Points” policy, revealed that according to the current situation and timing, there is no government. Give the mature conditions of the lead trading guide price. That is to say, the current trading platform does not priced the points, but the car companies participating in the point trading are negotiated in the transaction through bidding or agreement.

However, the point transaction system, which is regarded as a new energy vehicle subsidy policy to ensure the development of new energy vehicles, cannot be effectively supplemented in the actual operation at this stage. In other words, the point transaction is a way to take over the financial subsidies, so that the price of the points can more exert its value, which is not easy to achieve at present.

"On the transaction price, last year, the China National Automobile Center Data Resource Center joint industry institutions and more than 50 mainstream car companies conducted a related study on the transaction price of the points, pre-determined a proposed guide price for the 2016~2017 point transaction - every minute 1000~1500 yuan," said Ren Huanhuan, director of the Energy Conservation Research Department of the China National Automotive Industry Center.

This proposal guides the price. In the actual transaction, it is only for the reference of the trading company. The final price is still based on the actual transaction, and because of the different circumstances of each transaction, different transaction prices will be presented. "This year's point transaction price may not be very high, even lower than the recommended guidance price, below 1,000 yuan." An industry insider made an interview in an interview with reporters, "This is mainly based on the current point calculation results. The status of the supply and demand of the points presented, the industry positive points are relatively abundant, the seller can not form a strong premium ability."

However, Zhao Dongxuan judged that with the increasingly stringent fuel consumption of enterprises, the relationship between supply and demand of points, and the change in the cost of points, it will increase the point transaction premium ability of enterprises with more new energy points to some extent. It is expected that the actual points will be traded after the end of 2021. Prices will rise. "From another perspective, the point transaction is not for the purpose of splitting, nor is it to promote the transaction price, but to guide and promote the company to meet the policy requirements through the layout of new energy vehicles." Zhao Dongyu said.

Early trading wait-and-see

May not be expected to be active

In accordance with the relevant provisions of the "double points" policy, before September 30, enterprises must complete the settlement of the negative points, and if they fail to complete the settlement on September 30, they should submit the production or import of passenger cars for the current year to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Adjust the plan so that the positive points expected to be generated this year can offset the negative points that have not been paid. Otherwise, before the negative integral compensation is cleared, the fuel consumption will not reach the target value of the vehicle fuel consumption target value of the passenger fuel consumption evaluation method and index, and will not be included in the road motor vehicle manufacturing enterprise and The Product Announcement may not issue a compulsory product certification certificate, and may be punished in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Automobile Industry Development Policy", "Compulsory Product Certification Management Regulations" and other relevant provisions.

"In the next three months of the point trading period, the activity of the transaction is likely to be not as high as expected. More companies in the early stage of the transaction will choose to wait and see. By September, the period of the point trading period is about to end, it is expected to be relatively concentrated. Trading." A responsible person of a company that did not want to be named told reporters.

In fact, there are some risks in the point trading stage. These risk factors have also become the key to the activity of the point trading. “For example, in the operation of the trading platform, the enterprise needs to have a familiar process of system operation, which will be inconvenient at the beginning; in addition, at the beginning of the trading period, the general wait and see of the enterprise, including the management of the point transaction of parallel imported cars, etc. To a certain extent, it restricts the activity of the initial stage of the transaction." Zhao Dongyu analysis.

In addition, in the process of the actual landing of the transaction, there are still details on the handling of relevant procedures and the collection of taxes and fees. "At present, through the communication and consultation with relevant departments, the expenses incurred by the point transaction will be temporarily collected according to the 6% VAT." Zhao Dongyu said.




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