In 2005, the methanol market took a good trend in recent years, and continued to show a relatively strong characteristic. Production and sales volume continued to increase, prices were at a relatively high level, and inventory levels were also controlled at a reasonable level. It is expected that the market will continue to exhibit certain strong characteristics this year, but it is expected that the market's differences will increase and the volatility of the market will intensify. The overall situation is not as good as it was in 2005.
Specifically, the methanol market in 2005 was relatively well-run, with prices showing a clear 'U'-shaped trend, with two highs and low middles. Although overall, due to the increase in market supply, the overall price is lower than in 2004, but it is still at a relatively high level. At the same time, domestically produced methanol has taken a dominant position in the market, and the market share of imported methanol has continuously decreased. Overall, the methanol market is still in a period of rapid development. While looking at the methanol market in 2006, there are more favorable and unfavorable factors. Therefore, it is expected that the bull market in recent years will continue to a certain extent, production and sales will continue to increase substantially, and the price is expected to remain unchanged. Relatively high, but overall market conditions are not as good as in 2005. It is expected that the methanol market in 2006 will exhibit the following characteristics:
Production and sales continue to increase As the methanol price is high, the methanol plant operating rate is high, and the new production capacity is increased, the methanol production in 2006 will have a relatively large increase, and the expected growth rate is over 30%, which will exceed the 2005 Growth rate. In terms of demand, with the rapid development of China's national economy, China's methanol demand will continue to grow at a relatively high rate in 2006, and consumption will exceed 8 million tons, setting a record high. Formaldehyde consumes the most methanol in the field, accounting for about 28% of the total methanol consumption. In 2006, the production of formaldehyde in China is expected to exceed 4.6 million tons, and the demand for methanol is expected to reach about 2.2 million tons. Acetic acid accounts for about 8% of methanol consumption. In 2006, the demand for acetic acid for methanol is expected to exceed 800,000 tons. In addition, the demand for methanol in MTBE, methanol fuel, solvent and other industries in 2006 is expected to reach about 5 million tons.
The price is still at a relatively high level. Domestic methanol prices will remain relatively high in 2006, mainly due to two reasons: First, the reasons for production costs. According to statistics, at present, there are 186 methanol production enterprises in China, of which 164 use coal as raw materials, accounting for 75.3% of the total methanol production capacity; 20 natural gas producers, accounting for 22.7% of the total methanol production capacity; coke oven gas manufacturers 2 homes account for 2% of the total methanol production capacity. In other words, 98% of the methanol production is based on coal and natural gas. Due to energy shortages, coal prices will remain high in 2006, and there is little room for the cost reduction of coal to methanol; on December 26, 2005, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document, natural gas prices rose by 50 to 150 yuan/1000 cubic meters, and the production of natural gas methanol manufacturers The cost will increase by about 10%. The second is the impact of international methanol prices. Most of the methanol in the world uses natural gas as raw material. After the international oil price rises sharply, the international natural gas price has also risen sharply. At present, the price of natural gas in New York has reached US$14 per million British thermal units, which will lead to international methanol production. The cost remains high and the sales price of methanol will remain high. This will not only make methanol imports more difficult, but will also have a certain supporting role for domestic methanol prices.
Imported methanol has little impact. China is one of the largest methanol consumers in the world, and it is also one of the fastest growing methanol consumers in the world. Some large methanol manufacturers and distributors in the world have targeted the Chinese market. However, in recent years, China's methanol production capacity has been greatly improved, self-sufficiency has been continuously enhanced, and due to the sharp increase in international natural gas prices and the increase in international methanol production costs, methanol imports in 2006 are not expected to change significantly compared to 2005. In other words, it is still at a relatively low level and will not have a significant impact on the domestic methanol market. On the contrary, if the domestic methanol price and the spread on the international market are relatively large, it will lead to the export of domestic methanol to the international market.
New production capacity affects the market As domestic methanol prices have shown a steady upward trend in recent years, the profit from methanol production is considerable, and a large number of new methanol plants have emerged, which has greatly increased the production capacity of methanol in China. According to the preliminary statistics of the relevant departments, in 2006 China's new methanol production capacity was at least 2.5 million tons. Even if calculated at a 50% operating rate, it will increase methanol production by 1.25 million tons. This will have a greater impact on the market.
'Methanol replaces oil' is worth paying attention. In recent years, government departments at all levels have been exploring the feasibility of replacing petroleum with other new energy sources. Methanol replacement is also one of the options. However, judging from the current situation, the controversy over the substitution of methanol is rather large and the differences are relatively large. The progress is far less than that of ethanol, and whether there is progress in this area in 2006 is worth paying attention.
Specifically, the methanol market in 2005 was relatively well-run, with prices showing a clear 'U'-shaped trend, with two highs and low middles. Although overall, due to the increase in market supply, the overall price is lower than in 2004, but it is still at a relatively high level. At the same time, domestically produced methanol has taken a dominant position in the market, and the market share of imported methanol has continuously decreased. Overall, the methanol market is still in a period of rapid development. While looking at the methanol market in 2006, there are more favorable and unfavorable factors. Therefore, it is expected that the bull market in recent years will continue to a certain extent, production and sales will continue to increase substantially, and the price is expected to remain unchanged. Relatively high, but overall market conditions are not as good as in 2005. It is expected that the methanol market in 2006 will exhibit the following characteristics:
Production and sales continue to increase As the methanol price is high, the methanol plant operating rate is high, and the new production capacity is increased, the methanol production in 2006 will have a relatively large increase, and the expected growth rate is over 30%, which will exceed the 2005 Growth rate. In terms of demand, with the rapid development of China's national economy, China's methanol demand will continue to grow at a relatively high rate in 2006, and consumption will exceed 8 million tons, setting a record high. Formaldehyde consumes the most methanol in the field, accounting for about 28% of the total methanol consumption. In 2006, the production of formaldehyde in China is expected to exceed 4.6 million tons, and the demand for methanol is expected to reach about 2.2 million tons. Acetic acid accounts for about 8% of methanol consumption. In 2006, the demand for acetic acid for methanol is expected to exceed 800,000 tons. In addition, the demand for methanol in MTBE, methanol fuel, solvent and other industries in 2006 is expected to reach about 5 million tons.
The price is still at a relatively high level. Domestic methanol prices will remain relatively high in 2006, mainly due to two reasons: First, the reasons for production costs. According to statistics, at present, there are 186 methanol production enterprises in China, of which 164 use coal as raw materials, accounting for 75.3% of the total methanol production capacity; 20 natural gas producers, accounting for 22.7% of the total methanol production capacity; coke oven gas manufacturers 2 homes account for 2% of the total methanol production capacity. In other words, 98% of the methanol production is based on coal and natural gas. Due to energy shortages, coal prices will remain high in 2006, and there is little room for the cost reduction of coal to methanol; on December 26, 2005, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document, natural gas prices rose by 50 to 150 yuan/1000 cubic meters, and the production of natural gas methanol manufacturers The cost will increase by about 10%. The second is the impact of international methanol prices. Most of the methanol in the world uses natural gas as raw material. After the international oil price rises sharply, the international natural gas price has also risen sharply. At present, the price of natural gas in New York has reached US$14 per million British thermal units, which will lead to international methanol production. The cost remains high and the sales price of methanol will remain high. This will not only make methanol imports more difficult, but will also have a certain supporting role for domestic methanol prices.
Imported methanol has little impact. China is one of the largest methanol consumers in the world, and it is also one of the fastest growing methanol consumers in the world. Some large methanol manufacturers and distributors in the world have targeted the Chinese market. However, in recent years, China's methanol production capacity has been greatly improved, self-sufficiency has been continuously enhanced, and due to the sharp increase in international natural gas prices and the increase in international methanol production costs, methanol imports in 2006 are not expected to change significantly compared to 2005. In other words, it is still at a relatively low level and will not have a significant impact on the domestic methanol market. On the contrary, if the domestic methanol price and the spread on the international market are relatively large, it will lead to the export of domestic methanol to the international market.
New production capacity affects the market As domestic methanol prices have shown a steady upward trend in recent years, the profit from methanol production is considerable, and a large number of new methanol plants have emerged, which has greatly increased the production capacity of methanol in China. According to the preliminary statistics of the relevant departments, in 2006 China's new methanol production capacity was at least 2.5 million tons. Even if calculated at a 50% operating rate, it will increase methanol production by 1.25 million tons. This will have a greater impact on the market.
'Methanol replaces oil' is worth paying attention. In recent years, government departments at all levels have been exploring the feasibility of replacing petroleum with other new energy sources. Methanol replacement is also one of the options. However, judging from the current situation, the controversy over the substitution of methanol is rather large and the differences are relatively large. The progress is far less than that of ethanol, and whether there is progress in this area in 2006 is worth paying attention.