This year's bus sales did not have much ups and downs with the development of the auto market, and the development is relatively stable.
As the temperature of Golden Week slowly receded, all the industrial data for September was also released. This is the first golden month after the Chinese auto market reached the world's top throne. Although sales in the international market in China were slightly lower than those in the European market in September, cumulative sales in China have already become number one in the year.
The "pessimists" thought that the growth of automobiles had already reached the limit 9 months ago, and the automobile market such as the property market would also have bubbles; after September, the "optimists" responded to the growth limit with facts. In September, the overall auto market increased by 16.98%, an increase of 77.21 from the same period of last year. %, a cumulative increase of 34.24% year-on-year. Due to the Olympics last year, breaking the traditional market rules, so there is not much value in the same month, but no matter where
The data shows that this year is a good year. Commercial vehicles (excluding micro-customers) increased by 13.03% in September, a year-on-year increase of 59.39% and a cumulative increase of 15.59% year-on-year. Passenger cars (excluding micro-customers) increased by 18.18% in September, a year-on-year increase of 27.62%, and a cumulative decrease of 0.83% year-on-year. According to the new division, the passenger car sales this year are not much ups and downs, and the development is relatively stable.
Large passenger sales have a downward trend
The cumulative decrease of 11.28% for large passenger vehicles during the same period was the largest drop in the model. Large passenger buses were mostly supplied to city buses, long-distance buses and tourist buses. Due to the convening of the Olympic Games last year, the replacement of urban public transport in recent years in 2008, and the increase in tourist vehicles by passenger transport companies have caused sales in 2008 to be different from that in previous years. Therefore, the sales volume of large passenger vehicles has dropped so much this year. In addition to the next few years
As the 2010 Shanghai World Expo will be a relatively large-scale activity, the demand for large passenger vehicles will increase, and there will be opportunities to bring about a new round of growth in the sales volume of large passenger vehicles. Existing passenger cars are sufficient to meet the needs of various activities. In addition to the accelerated development of domestic high-speed railways, the sales volume of large passenger vehicles is limited to the replacement of bus lines in cities. It is expected that there will be a slight increase in sales of large passenger cars next year, and there will not be much room for growth in the next 2-3 years.
Medium-sized and light passenger cars belong to more family-friendly models. No matter the company or individuals can buy small passenger transport. Take Beijing as an example. With the development of tourism in the surrounding suburbs and counties, individual travelers have entered the homes of ordinary people. And there are many scenic spots to be developed around Beijing, and the potential for short-distance passenger transportation is huge. Because it is impossible to estimate the potential value of future national short-distance travel, it is still estimated that medium-sized and light-duty buses will have a larger space for growth in the next five years. In September, the cumulative number of medium-sized passenger cars increased by 9.28% year-on-year, and that of light buses by 1.03%.
Diesel is the main driver of passenger cars, and environmental protection power is steadily rising
Large passenger car sales have fallen but other fuel vehicles have risen. The total number of diesel vehicles and gasoline vehicles decreased by 14.23% and 42.79% respectively in September compared with the same period last year, while other fuel vehicles increased by 147.05%. It is not surprising that this situation is not surprising. With the deepening of urbanization, urban public transport is one of the major sales directions of large passenger vehicles, and urban public transport has begun to select clean fuel vehicles to replace traditional fuel vehicles. Tourist vehicles still use diesel vehicles that are convenient for supplementing fuel. It is expected that the sales volume of diesel vehicles will decline, and the increase in sales of other fuel vehicles will continue to last for a long period of time until the basic replacement of urban public transport is completed. Estimated by the bus scrap time, it will take five years to stabilize.
The cumulative growth of diesel passenger cars, gasoline vehicles, and other fuel vehicles for medium-sized passenger vehicles in September was 9%, 6.83%, and 51.49%, respectively. The growth trend has gradually stabilized and will continue to grow at this rate in the future.
Lightweight passenger cars have no difference in sales of diesel and gasoline cars. Light passengers need strong mobility, so other fuel vehicles have almost no sales. This also provides a wake-up call for the development of new fuel vehicles. It is not that the market does not choose new fuel vehicles. Instead, it should make the new fuel vehicles compact and convenient.
Although the auto market has gratifying results, but we can not be too optimistic, as researchers should look at the world with cold eyes, can not take the extreme route. The bubble in the auto market is not impossible. After all, the 1997 Asian financial crisis has given us a lesson. Although there is a huge support for the motherland, there is always a time when it will be at the top of the limelight. The world is staring at China. The first place is not so good. When the auto market is good, it earns more, if it is not good, it can be recovered, and the long-lasting market growth is a game of retreat. The passenger car market has long been tepid and hit by passenger cars. The sales volume of new fuel vehicles indicates a direction that can be increased. Only by stabilizing the market trend can the market stabilize.
Bus sales did not follow up with the development of the auto market, and the development is relatively stable. However, sales of new energy buses have increased rapidly.
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